Are we to deprive ourselves of the help and guidance of that vast body of knowledge which is daily growing upon the world, because neither we nor any other one person can possibly test a hundredth part of it by immediate experiment or observation, and because it would not be completely proved if we did? Shall we steal and tell lies because we have had no personal experience wide enough to justify the belief that it is wrong to do so? There is no practical danger that such consequences will ever follow from scrupulous care and self-control in the matter of belief.
Posted on November 30, by Scott Alexander I. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil? Can he expect to get rich? No — if Google stock was underpriced ie you could easily get rich by buying Google stockthen everyone smart enough to notice would buy it.
As everyone tried to buy it, the price would go up until it was no longer underpriced. Big Wall Street banks have people who are at least as smart as your uncle, and who will notice before he does whether stocks are underpriced. The city has lots of skilled Thai chefs and good access to low-priced Thai ingredients.
With the certainty of physical law, we can know that city will have a Thai restaurant. Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a Nobel Prize.
But go too far with this kind of logic, and you start accidentally proving that nothing can be bad anywhere. Suppose you thought that modern science was brokenwith scientists and grantmakers doing a bad job of focusing their discoveries on truly interesting and important things. But if this were true, then you or anyone else with a little money could set up a non-broken science, make many more discoveries than everyone else, get more Nobel Prizes, earn more money from all your patents and inventions, and eventually become so prestigious and rich that everyone else admits you were right and switches to doing science your way.
There are dozens of government bodies, private institutions, and universities that could do this kind of thing if they wanted. But none of them have. All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich.
But if lots of people want better mass transit and are willing to pay for it, this is a great money-making opportunity. Entrepreneurs are pretty smart, so they would notice this money-making opportunity, raise some funds from equally-observant venture capitalists, make a better mass transit system, and get really rich off of all the tickets.
But nobody has done this.
No doctor had any good ideas about what to do at this point. Eliezer did some digging, found that existing light boxes were still way less bright than the sun, and jury-rigged a much brighter version.
A friend told Eliezer that the professionals at the Bank surely knew more than he did. But after a few years, the Bank of Japan switched policies, the Japanese economy instantly improved, and now the consensus position is that the original policies were deeply flawed in exactly the way Eliezer and others thought they were.
You would expect it to just not work at all. In previous years, I would use the case of central-line infections as my go-to example of medical inadequacy.
Some babies have malformed digestive systems and need to have nutrient fluid pumped directly into their veins.
The nutrient fluid formula used in the US has the wrong kinds of lipids in it, and about a third of babies who get it die of brain or liver damage.
But the only FDA-approved nutrient fluid formula is the one with the wrong lipids, so we just keep giving it to babies, and they just keep dying.
Eliezer draws on the economics literature to propose three main categories of solution: I shall, somewhat arbitrarily, sort these concepts into three larger categories: Cases where the decision lies in the hands of people who would gain little personally, or lose out personally, if they did what was necessary to help someone else; 2.
Systems that are broken in multiple places so that no one actor can make them better, even though, in principle, some magically coordinated action could move to a new stable state.
The first way evil enters the world is when there is no way for people who notice a mistake to benefit from correcting it. For example, Eliezer and his friends sometimes joke about how really stupid Uber-for-puppies style startups are overvalued.
The people investing in these startups are making a mistake big enough for ordinary people like Eliezer to notice.In Fortnite Battle Royale, the world’s most popular video game, released last September and today being played by millions of people at a .
Radical book club examines how to organize for power successfully.
The first time I raised the idea of Righties learning from Lefties, a lot of people greeted it with derision. Plenty still do. That's a terrible attitude, one that Righties need to overcome if we want to win.
Some Righties argue that we don't need.
Cosmology is now being exploited by creationists who argue that the fundamental constants of nature are so precisely tuned that an intelligent designer was required to create the universe.
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How To Write An Essay Part 8 - Examples of Good and Bad Writing. Learning to write often works best by example. The following are . The Nature of Order: An Essay on the Art of Building and the Nature of the Universe, Book 1 - The Phenomenon of Life (Center for Environmental Structure, Vol.
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